Analysis finds front-of-meter (FTM) distributed resources–including community solar plus storage–could serve local load equivalent to 32% of California’s 2032 utility peak demand forecast
SACRAMENTO, CA — A new study produced by Kevala, a leading energy data and analytics firm, finds that California has significantly more grid capacity that could be used for local solar and storage than was previously understood.
The study, commissioned by the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA), finds that front-of-meter solar and storage could serve approximately 17.5 gigawatts (GW) of local load on California’s investor-owned utility (IOU) distribution substations during California’s most critical summer peak hours. This is equivalent to 32% of expected peak demand according to the California Energy Commission’s most recent 2032 planning forecast. Importantly, the study finds that this can be done without sending power back onto the transmission system. The 17.5 GW figure reflects conservative assumptions about what each substation can absorb.
These findings are significant as California is challenged by capacity and resource constraints. As energy demand increases, ensuring that enough power is available when and where customers need it most will be increasingly difficult. Indeed, recent state forecasts find that the state will need to roughly triple its installed electric generating capacity over the next two decades to keep pace with rising demand and state policy goals. By serving demand locally during peak summer demand hours, distributed solar and storage can reduce the load the system must meet while helping to address reliability and affordability concerns.
“California communities need increased access to power. But large infrastructure projects are time-intensive and subject to delay, and consumers and the grid need relief from rising energy costs now,” said James McGarry, Regional Director, West, CCSA. “Grid-facing distributed solar and storage resources are ready to deploy and serve local demand during the hours Californians need them most. By placing these resources closer to where communities need them, they can provide consumers with confidence that their homes and businesses will be powered reliably and affordably.”
The study specifically analyzed front-of-the-meter distributed resources that dispatch between 4-9 p.m. from June through September, identifying the volume that could be discharged to serve local demand without creating net exports from the distribution substation to the higher-voltage system. In doing so, it found untapped opportunities for more than 3,100 projects to exist statewide. This includes Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) service territories in Northern California, the Central Valley, and Southern California.
Key findings include:
- Available hosting capacity is geographically dispersed across the CAISO balancing authority region, with large pockets of serviceable distribution load concentrated in the Central Valley, across both PG&E and SCE territory, as well as in the Bay Area, Los Angeles basin, and San Diego.
- SCE showed the most serviceable local load, with 9,188 MW across its substations, enough for roughly 1,657 5-MW systems.
- PG&E followed with 6,560 MW, supporting an estimated 1,129 5-MW systems.
- SDG&E contributed an additional 1,788 MW, equivalent to approximately 326 5-MW systems.
“Our study identifies substantial distribution-connected load that could be served by front-of-meter resources during California’s summer peak and net-peak hours,” said Pete Skala, the Vice President of Professional and Advisory Services at Kevala. “Across areas of the state served by the IOUs, we found that 17.5 GW of local load can be served by distributed solar and storage without requiring backflow onto the higher voltage transmission or sub-transmission system. These findings indicate that a substantial share of California’s energy demand during the most expensive hours of the year could be met directly by locally sited front-of-the-meter distributed resources.”
The reliability and demand challenges that California faces are increasingly defined by not only generating capacity that is available, but dispatchability during summer evening peak demand. Storage paired with local solar, such as community solar plus storage, or storage charged from the grid during off-peak hours, can discharge between 4-9 p.m. to serve local demand, reducing the amount of peak load that must be served by the larger grid system. That type of load modification provides California with a crucial tool for maintaining reliability and affordability as demand grows across the state.
“This report shows that front-of-the-meter distributed solar and storage can deliver power where and when California needs it most,” said Stephanie Doyle, California State Affairs Director, Solar Energy Industries Association. “These resources are critical for strengthening grid reliability and easing pressure on the state’s strained transmission system.”
“This is exactly what we need to bring down ratepayer costs,” said Arnab Pal, Executive Director of Deploy Action, which is working to deploy state-level policies to accelerate the clean energy transition, including in California. “Community solar and storage – and particularly storage – is one of the key ways to fully utilize California’s existing electricity grid.”
Heat waves in recent years have shown how expensive it is to guarantee reliability when summer demand is highest. The volume of electricity the system requires during peak periods drives investments in resource adequacy, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and other grid services. Resources that modify load during these periods, such as distributed solar and storage, can reduce those costs.
Previous research commissioned by CCSA highlights the scale of opportunity, finding that 5.4 GW of community solar and storage in California could deliver approximately $6.5 billion in net savings over 20 years. The Kevala study shows that the capabilities and capacity exist to deploy thousands of community solar and storage projects that will deliver these enormous cost savings to the grid and to California communities.
While the study measures technical potential, and not how much storage and solar will ultimately be built or account for site-specific requirements, the findings clearly show that the availability of distribution-connected load is not a limiting factor preventing front-of-meter distributed resources from playing a critical role in meeting California’s summer net peak demand needs as there is ample room on the distribution system.
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About CCSA
CCSA is a national trade association representing over 125 community solar developers, businesses, and nonprofits. Together, we are building the electric grid of the future where every customer has the freedom to support the generation of clean, local solar energy to power their lives. Through legislative and regulatory advocacy, and the support of a diverse coalition — including advocates for competition, clean energy, ratepayers, landowners, farmers, and environmental justice — we enable policies that unlock the potential of distributed energy resources, starting with community solar. For more information, visit https://www.communitysolaraccess.org and follow the group on X (Twitter), LinkedIn, and Youtube.